The crime rate continues to plunge in Santa Rosa, reaching a 20-year-low in
2008.
Statistically speaking, a city resident in 1988 was more than twice as
likely to be the victim of a property crime than a resident is now. Similar
parallels for violent crime can’t be drawn because of classification changes
in 2003, but since then the violent crime rate has dropped 27 percent despite
a spike in homicides last year.
That comes as a surprise to some folks.
”I feel like it should be worse because of the economy,” said Maci
Tuinstra of Santa Rosa. ”People might get desperate and commit crimes,” she
said.
But crime rates have been dropping for decades nationally, and police are
familiar with the trend.
”From a very broad perspective, it shows we’re moving in the right
direction,” said Tom Schwedhelm, acting chief of the Santa Rosa Police
Department. ”But it’s a communitywide effort with community awareness and
outreach efforts in programs like neighborhood watch.”
The department’s statistics for 2008, which are being forwarded to state
and federal authorities, show a 4.5 percent drop in the violent crime rate in
one year and a 3.3 percent decline in the property crime rate.
The crime rate is an expression of the number of crimes per 1,000
residents. But in Santa Rosa, the actual number crimes also has dropped
significantly.
While the city population has increased 48 percent in 20 years, the total
number of homicides, forcible rapes, robberies, aggravated assaults,
burglaries, vehicle thefts and larcenies has decreased 34 percent, according
to Police Department data.
Does that mean Santa Rosa is safer than it was 20 years ago? The answer may
depend on several factors, including where you live and with whom you
associate.
Police Sgt. Lisa Banayat also warned that the numbers could indicate trends
other than a reduction in crime. They could also indicate a reduction in
reporting.
”Whether there is less crime or less reporting is hard to say,” she said,
adding that violent crimes were more likely to be reported than property
crimes. ”We would like to think that property crime is down, but we can’t be
sure. We know that fewer reports are coming in.”
The biggest decline over time has come in property offenses.
”A lot of it has to do with the fact that our staffing levels have finally
come up over the last few years as a result of Measure O (the voter-approved
sales tax), which is what it was in place for,” said Sgt. Mike Clark with the
city’s property crimes unit. ”Other than the spikes in some strong-arm
robberies we’ve been seeing, I think it’s just because we’ve been putting some
more police officers on the streets.”
Schwedhelm said while general robbery rates are down, drug robberies have
increased. And those crimes can be hard to combat, he said.
”It’s a challenging crime to investigate,” Schwedhelm said. ”The people
involved are already involved in illegal activity and don’t necessarily want
to cooperate with us.”
The data is what Santa Rosa police will report to the FBI for the Uniform
Crime Report, an annual national study on the occurrence of homicides,
forcible rapes, robberies, aggravated assaults, burglaries, vehicle thefts and
larcenies.
The data is used to compare cities. Information for other cities’ crime
rates in 2008 is not available as the report has not yet been published.
Sonoma State University Criminology Professor Pat Jackson said Santa Rosa’s
crime rates will likely be very similar to those of similar-sized cities.
”Santa Rosa really doesn’t differ all that much,” Jackson said, adding
that crime figures showed the city was doing ”pretty well.”
”We’ve seen some pretty steep drop-offs pretty clearly the past couple of
decades,” he said. ”The only question is how low will it go.”
Monique Beck of Santa Rosa credited an increased police presence in her
neighborhood with a decrease in crime.
”I would think that crime was increasing, but I see a lot more police
enforcement in my neighborhood, particularly with the homeless,” she said.
”That probably helps.”
Schwedhelm said in addition to neighborhood outreach and city programs such
as neighborhood watch, regional programs like the Sonoma County Auto Theft
Task Force formed in 1998 and the Mayors Gang Prevention Task Force formed in
1991 have made an impact.
”Regional approaches to regional problems is what’s working,” Schwedhelm
said.
Santa Rosa police will use the data to help determine staff assignments.
You can reach Staff Writer Laura Norton at 521-5220
laura.norton@pressdemocrat.com.
